This report on CSES study was published in The Hindu 30/07/2011
A study attempts to make sense of the way land is carved up for a variety of uses in the State. R. RAMABHADRAN PILLAI explains how it correlates population growth and land-use patterns.
The price of land has been scaling new heights in the State as almost every piece of earth on offer seems to have demand. The increase in population has a direct bearing on the pressure exerted on land, leading to fragmentation of holdings and conversion of cultivable land.
A recent study conducted by the Centre for Socio-economic and Environmental Studies (CSES), Kochi, titled “Population pressure on land in Kerala,” examines the land-population relationship in Kerala and how the State responded to population pressure during the past three decades.
The study was conducted by D. Radha Devi, former Professor and Head, Department of Population Policies and Programmes, International Institute for Population Sciences, and N. Ajith Kumar, CSES Director.
The study points out that Kerala has less than 2 per cent of the land area of India and accommodates over 3 per cent of the nation’s population. In 1961, the State’s population was 16.9 million, which increased to 31.8 million in 2001, an addition of 14.9 million over 40 years. Though the study was conducted prior to the release of the Census 2011 figures, the evaluated trend holds good even in the evolving scenario, Mr. Ajith Kumar told PropertyPlus.
Population pressure in developing countries is often discussed in the context of a high population growth rate. But the situation is different in Kerala where the growth rate of population has come down significantly over the decades and has reached 9.42 per cent during 1991-2001 as against the Indian average of 21.34 per cent. Even by conservative projections, population growth in Kerala is expected to turn negative latest by 2041.
The low rate has been achieved partly through a consistent decline in the total fertility rate and migration.
Kerala has the third highest population density of 819 persons per sq.km in India, say the 2001 data.
One expected impact of population pressure on land is the fragmentation of agricultural holdings in the State, the average size of which has come down from 0.49 hectare in 1976-77 to 0.23 hectare in 2005-06.
The share of marginal holdings in the area under cultivation showed an increase, while the share of large and medium holdings fell.
In addition to the population pressure, land-reform legislation, disintegration of the joint family system, and development of agricultural technology can be the reasons for the fragmentation. The period also witnessed a marginal decline in the area available for agriculture.
With population pressure, one expects a decline in land classified as cultivable, waste, fallow, and those under miscellaneous tree crops.
But in Kerala, only the land under the last classification declined consistently, which might have been used for purposes other than agriculture. Thus, it appears that there was little or no effect of population growth on the extent of cultivable land and intensifying its use during the study period. But the use to which this land has been put has changed.
The shift from food to non-food crops has been the most visible.
Thirty per cent of the cropped area in 1975-76 was under paddy, the staple food crop of the State. In spite of the deficit in food production in the State, this area came down to 9 per cent by 2005-06.
At the same time, the area under cash crops increased by 189 per cent.
The most spectacular rise has been of rubber cultivation, with the area increasing from 2,06,700 hectares in 1975-76 to 5,97,610 hectares in 2005-06. The shift to rubber cultivation has affected almost all crops.
Of the land not available for cultivation (excluding forests), the share of land put to uses other than agriculture increased consistently from 72.3 per cent in 1975-76 to 93.3 per cent in 2005-06, mainly due to the increasing demand for houses, industry, and transport.
During the same period, the share of barren and uncultivable land, permanent pastures, and other grazing land fell.
Another expected change in the land-use pattern due to population pressure is a decline in the area under forests.
The State policies on industrialisation changed from industries which require large tracts of land to small and medium enterprises. The service sector expanded in a large scale, its share increasing from 37 per cent to 59 per cent from 1975-76 to 2005-06.
Probably because of such responses, the economy began to make a turnaround from stagnation to growth by the mid-1980s even when the population pressure continued to increase.